February 15, 2011
Pitchers and catchers are playing long toss
43 days until Opening Day
Strikeout Trivia: The 1969 and 2010 seasons are tied for having the most pitchers with 200 or more strikeouts. How many pitchers in each season qualified for this distinction? (In other words, what’s the record?) (If you can name two thirds of the 2010 guys, I will buy you lunch.)
The remainder of today’s email is about the regular season powerhouse but woeful postseason underachievers known as the 1991-2005 Atlanta Braves. I think you might find it interesting even if you’re not a Braves fan.
How do you solve a problem like the 1990s Braves?: Between 1991 and 2005 the Braves won their division 14 times in 15 years, including 11 in a row between 1995 and 2005. For all their trouble, they only won one World Series. Here’s a breakdown of their ultimate results between 1991 and 2005:
Lost in the LDS 5 times
Lost in the NLCS 4 times
Lost in the World Series 4 times
Won the World Series 1 time (1995)
These numbers are remarkable for several reasons. First of all, winning the division 14 of 15 years is pretty good. The only reason they didn’t win it all 15 seasons is that there was no postseason in 1994. They often won the division by a lot; at times they won by 21, 19, 18, 10, 10, 9, and 8 games. They averaged over 97 wins a season and won more than 100 games six times. The Braves had three future Hall of Fame pitchers, a future Hall of Fame third baseman, and a future Hall of Fame manager (not to mention many other All-Stars).
So what happened?
I’m no analyst, but I can show you some cool numbers. Let’s look at the pitchers first. The years reflected are their years with the Braves between 1991 and 2005.
John Smoltz (1991-2005): 149-99, 3.17 ERA, 39 complete games with 13 shutouts, 154 saves, 2,192 strikeouts, 1.148 WHIP, 1 Cy Young
Tom Glavine (1991-2002): 209-102, 3.15 ERA, 44 complete games with 18 shutouts, 225 innings per season, 1,731 strikeouts, 1.275 WHIP, 2 Cy Youngs
Greg Maddux (1993-2003): 194-88, 2.63 ERA, 61 complete games with 21 shutouts, 230 innings per season, 1,828 strikeouts, 1.051 WHIP, 4 Cy Youngs
That trio is the gold standard against which other potentially great pitching staffs are measured. All the talk this offseason has been about the Phillies’ 2011 rotation, and the pervading question is “Can they be better than the Braves of the 1990s?” There’s a good reason for that.
Don’t forget Chipper Jones. Between 1995, when he became a fulltime player, and 2005, Chipper hit .303, 331 home runs, 1,111 RBI, had a .401 OBP, and struck out far fewer than 100 times per season. He was also MVP in 1999.
Fred McGriff, Terry Pendleton, and a young Andruw Jones played on those teams at one time or another, too, among others.
So why’d they keep losing?
My first guess was that the offense just didn’t produce in the series in which they lost. That’s not quite accurate. In the thirteen series they lost, the Braves offensively outperformed the teams that beat them about half the time. In six of those lost series, they had a better team batting average than the victors, and seven times they scored more runs in the series.
Their road-home splits are pretty even (that is, they were pretty dreadful both home and away): they were 13-25 at home and 11-22 away. It’s old baseball wisdom that you must win at home; maybe the Braves’ record supports that simple theory.
The Braves were only 3-11 in Game Ones of series in which they lost. Many of the lost Games Ones in the earlier lost series were blown by the bullpen; maybe a bad bullpen is to blame. The Big Three weren’t to blame; each of their career postseason ERAs are in line with their regular season career ERAs.
There is a statistic developed by Bill James called Pythagorean wins. Pythagorean wins are determined by plugging into a formula how many runs a team scored and allowed over the course of a season. Theoretically Pythagorean wins are an indicator of how lucky a team was; that is, if their Pythagorean wins (how many games they “should have” won) are higher than their actual wins, they got unlucky, and vice versa. Sort of like how you might assume the Braves got unlucky in those postseason series that they lost but managed to outhit their opponents.
According to the Braves’ Pythagorean wins between 1991-2005, the Braves finished with a better record than they “should have” eight times; they got lucky. Six of those eight seasons were ones in which they outhit the team that vanquished them in the playoffs.
Call it regression to the mean, call it bad luck, call it the law of averages; it seems that the numbers simply caught up to the Braves when the postseason came around. Could it really be that simple and nonscientific?
Of course it can. It’s baseball.
Pitchers and catchers are playing long toss
43 days until Opening Day
Strikeout Trivia: The 1969 and 2010 seasons are tied for having the most pitchers with 200 or more strikeouts. How many pitchers in each season qualified for this distinction? (In other words, what’s the record?) (If you can name two thirds of the 2010 guys, I will buy you lunch.)
The remainder of today’s email is about the regular season powerhouse but woeful postseason underachievers known as the 1991-2005 Atlanta Braves. I think you might find it interesting even if you’re not a Braves fan.
How do you solve a problem like the 1990s Braves?: Between 1991 and 2005 the Braves won their division 14 times in 15 years, including 11 in a row between 1995 and 2005. For all their trouble, they only won one World Series. Here’s a breakdown of their ultimate results between 1991 and 2005:
Lost in the LDS 5 times
Lost in the NLCS 4 times
Lost in the World Series 4 times
Won the World Series 1 time (1995)
These numbers are remarkable for several reasons. First of all, winning the division 14 of 15 years is pretty good. The only reason they didn’t win it all 15 seasons is that there was no postseason in 1994. They often won the division by a lot; at times they won by 21, 19, 18, 10, 10, 9, and 8 games. They averaged over 97 wins a season and won more than 100 games six times. The Braves had three future Hall of Fame pitchers, a future Hall of Fame third baseman, and a future Hall of Fame manager (not to mention many other All-Stars).
So what happened?
I’m no analyst, but I can show you some cool numbers. Let’s look at the pitchers first. The years reflected are their years with the Braves between 1991 and 2005.
John Smoltz (1991-2005): 149-99, 3.17 ERA, 39 complete games with 13 shutouts, 154 saves, 2,192 strikeouts, 1.148 WHIP, 1 Cy Young
Tom Glavine (1991-2002): 209-102, 3.15 ERA, 44 complete games with 18 shutouts, 225 innings per season, 1,731 strikeouts, 1.275 WHIP, 2 Cy Youngs
Greg Maddux (1993-2003): 194-88, 2.63 ERA, 61 complete games with 21 shutouts, 230 innings per season, 1,828 strikeouts, 1.051 WHIP, 4 Cy Youngs
That trio is the gold standard against which other potentially great pitching staffs are measured. All the talk this offseason has been about the Phillies’ 2011 rotation, and the pervading question is “Can they be better than the Braves of the 1990s?” There’s a good reason for that.
Don’t forget Chipper Jones. Between 1995, when he became a fulltime player, and 2005, Chipper hit .303, 331 home runs, 1,111 RBI, had a .401 OBP, and struck out far fewer than 100 times per season. He was also MVP in 1999.
Fred McGriff, Terry Pendleton, and a young Andruw Jones played on those teams at one time or another, too, among others.
So why’d they keep losing?
My first guess was that the offense just didn’t produce in the series in which they lost. That’s not quite accurate. In the thirteen series they lost, the Braves offensively outperformed the teams that beat them about half the time. In six of those lost series, they had a better team batting average than the victors, and seven times they scored more runs in the series.
Their road-home splits are pretty even (that is, they were pretty dreadful both home and away): they were 13-25 at home and 11-22 away. It’s old baseball wisdom that you must win at home; maybe the Braves’ record supports that simple theory.
The Braves were only 3-11 in Game Ones of series in which they lost. Many of the lost Games Ones in the earlier lost series were blown by the bullpen; maybe a bad bullpen is to blame. The Big Three weren’t to blame; each of their career postseason ERAs are in line with their regular season career ERAs.
There is a statistic developed by Bill James called Pythagorean wins. Pythagorean wins are determined by plugging into a formula how many runs a team scored and allowed over the course of a season. Theoretically Pythagorean wins are an indicator of how lucky a team was; that is, if their Pythagorean wins (how many games they “should have” won) are higher than their actual wins, they got unlucky, and vice versa. Sort of like how you might assume the Braves got unlucky in those postseason series that they lost but managed to outhit their opponents.
According to the Braves’ Pythagorean wins between 1991-2005, the Braves finished with a better record than they “should have” eight times; they got lucky. Six of those eight seasons were ones in which they outhit the team that vanquished them in the playoffs.
Call it regression to the mean, call it bad luck, call it the law of averages; it seems that the numbers simply caught up to the Braves when the postseason came around. Could it really be that simple and nonscientific?
Of course it can. It’s baseball.
Trivia answer: Fifteen different pitchers threw 200 or more strikeouts in both 1969 and 2010. The 2010 players are: Ryan Dempster, Yovani Gallardo, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, Tim Lincecum, Francisco Liriano, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, and Jered Weaver.
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